Microsoft Kinect

[footle]

The iPad didn't launch at Xmas/Thanksgiving.

[Beertiger]

and even the cheapest model is more than three times more expensive than Kinect.

[tiedtiger]

The iPad didn't launch at Xmas/Thanksgiving.

But it is the fastest selling new product launch of all time.

Apparently.

[Roboplegic Wrongcock]

Well, boy, is their luck in because they have to wait no longer...

By which I mean, herp derp, herp derp, derp, derp, derp.

Deca sports right.

The games were complete shit on Wii. so why would you except them to raise their game on Kinect.

[Troublegum]

Deca sports right.

The games were complete shit on Wii. so why would you except them to raise their game on Kinect.

I didn't and they haven't; it's a funny trolling video, mon.

Like everyone else I'm more interested in the potential of the device, really. Just imagine what Treyarch or Bungie could do...

Until we get a Call of Duty: Immobile Ops or a Halo: Cannot Walk Around This Pillar (Of Autumn) Collector's Edition, we really don't know how an FPS would work on the thing - nobody does. Not that it needs one, of course.

[MK-1601]

Indeed I do.

I think precision (and extensibility) are key to the long term usefulness and viability of any kind of controller because the better they are the more kinds of cool games tend to show up and, in turn, more fun for all.

There isn't an issue with the Wii Remote's precision, though, at least not in the way you seem to be implying. We've seen first and third-person games and cursor-driven games work successfully with it. The hardware power of the machine and the consumer apathy towards traditional games on the platform (irrespective of quality) have been vastly more significant limiting factors than the controller.

You mentioned the other day that you think Move is much more precise. Do you think it will work better in the long run?

I think it works better.

[Major Britten]

It's unlikely. Even the iPad didn't sell that fast.

While I know it seems like advertising sucks the sheep in again and again, it's not actually true. I suspect they'll actually sell about 0.5m of the units. Ish.

iPad is a completely different beast though, it was pretty stupid for MS (Kudo) for even comparing it in the first place. But anyway 500k worldwide sales within 6 weeks during the christmas period is a bit low to me. Marketing for this is going to be huge in the lead up for launch and in terms of hype and public awareness, Kinect is much higher than Move. Unless of course dreamcastmaster's "source" is correct about MS making less than a million units before xmas then 500k could well be true As for the high price, I would argue that if people are willing to spend £100 for a game and a plastic figure (Reach) then im sure theres quite a few that will pay for this. If MS can get enough media backing with this and make it look like the next big thing it will sell regardless if it works properly or not and Microsoft do have the money and the resources to achieve that.

It will be interesting at least to see how this pans out, I personally think that this is going to bomb in the long term, MS version of the Mega CD and 32X, but at launch I can see it selling.

[Yoshimax]

I suspect they'll actually sell about 0.5m of the units. Ish.

Way off the mark - regardless of quality this thing'll sell 1m+ easy.

[tiedtiger]

iPad is a completely different beast though, it was pretty stupid for MS (Kudo) for even comparing it in the first place. But anyway 500k worldwide sales within 6 weeks during the christmas period is a bit low to me. Marketing for this is going to be huge in the lead up for launch and in terms of hype and public awareness, Kinect is much higher than Move. Unless of course dreamcastmaster's "source" is correct about MS making less than a million units before xmas then 500k could well be true As for the high price, I would argue that if people are willing to spend £100 for a game and a plastic figure (Reach) then im sure theres quite a few that will pay for this. If MS can get enough media backing with this and make it look like the next big thing it will sell regardless if it works properly or not and Microsoft do have the money and the resources to achieve that.

The thing about "next big things" is that they are naturally so owing to word of mouth, people talking about them etc. They're not created by ad campaigns nearly as often as some people think they are. Advertising doesn't have that sort of Medusa-like impact that some of you seem to think it does. All it ever really manages to do is make people aware that something exists, but it doesn't root them to the ground, unable to do anything else other than buy the thing.

I very much think that some people will quite happily fork out the £130+games for it, but if you're relying on that being the market for collectable-hunters then that market is not multi-millions in size, and for something like Reach there is already a self-selecting and significant fan base for the game who are making that purchase. It's more unusual for any game to be able to make such a sale from a standing start.

Instead, the target market for Kinect is overwhelmingly casual, but most casual users do not have Xboxes. So the actual cost to them is much higher. Meanwhile the regular Xbox users are the ones who didn't buy stuff like Scene It, were decidedly cool on You're In The Movies, and that kind of thing. They buy Halo, GTA, Call of Duty etc.

So Microsoft have basically targeted a market that doesn't have its console with a device that needs their console plus the device plus games. At that sort of price (£300-£350?) it's just not going to move a lot of units. I'd say they'll be *lucky* to sell 0.5m units.

[tiedtiger]

The smart thing to have done would have been to launch Kinect as a stand-alone system that could connect to a 360 and function as a webcam for it. Had they done that they would have had a Wii competitor that was cheap, with its own identity and games to match. That might have sold 1m or more units.

Hooking it up with 360 is a big mistake though.

[Corleth the Fey]

I think Microsofts original plan many moons ago would have had them releasing a new console about now. The plan with X360 was to beat Sony. Well they kind of did, but Nintendo came along again and beat them both. So the Wii and the expense of the RROD delayed Microsoft's expected profit on 360. So instead of a new console - we get this - a stopgap - a 32X - a fail.

I do agree that Microsoft maybe see this as a testing ground for incorporating this into a new console whenever that is released. But it's 32x territory again, and could do as much harm as good.

Microsoft has focused on gamers with it's consoles. They did a decent job - but the Xbox is now the console of choice for gamers, not the 'casuals'. Sony sold their 100 million consoles selling to casuals at the latter end of the console cycle. Nintendo have already taken them away from Sony and Microsoft. No Wii like control method is going to get them back in any worth while numbers.

I see the rest of this generation as been some what farcical. As Nintendo Wii sales slowly dry up and Sony/Microsoft scrabble around trying to recoup the costs of this gen. It's gonna be interesting to see who jumps first and how they do it. On the other hand though the extended gen is going to be good for software. The developers are gonna get some smart tech running in their games. See Castlevania/Force Unleashed 2.

[masterhand]

iPad is a completely different beast though, it was pretty stupid for MS (Kudo) for even comparing it in the first place. But anyway 500k worldwide sales within 6 weeks during the christmas period is a bit low to me. Marketing for this is going to be huge in the lead up for launch and in terms of hype and public awareness, Kinect is much higher than Move. Unless of course dreamcastmaster's "source" is correct about MS making less than a million units before xmas then 500k could well be true As for the high price, I would argue that if people are willing to spend £100 for a game and a plastic figure (Reach) then im sure theres quite a few that will pay for this. If MS can get enough media backing with this and make it look like the next big thing it will sell regardless if it works properly or not and Microsoft do have the money and the resources to achieve that.

It will be interesting at least to see how this pans out, I personally think that this is going to bomb in the long term, MS version of the Mega CD and 32X, but at launch I can see it selling.

Let's take a look at what's happened in the last few days.

Retailers annoucing preorders have sold out.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/41306/GAMEs-Kinect-stock-sold-out

Really? if you are talking about selling 3 million units and the hardware has now been locked down and finished for some time how can you have outsold the preorders? Maybe the preorders have exceeded 3 million units?

We'll catch them out when the NPDs are released the following month.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/41307/NPD-locks-up-sales-data

Well look at that, how convienient...

My source is good but I don't want to "out" him or myself.

[Corleth the Fey]

Surely many of these pre-orders have been pushed upon customers. I think we've all seen how much of a hard sell Kinect got, more than anything I've ever seen in the videogame world.

How many of these people actually going to go through with the full purchase? And of those that do, how fucking pissed off are they going to be when they find out they've been sold a bit of dud? Interesting times.

[scottcr]

I think Microsofts original plan many moons ago would have had them releasing a new console about now. The plan with X360 was to beat Sony. Well they kind of did, but Nintendo came along again and beat them both. So the Wii and the expense of the RROD delayed Microsoft's expected profit on 360. So instead of a new console - we get this - a stopgap - a 32X - a fail.

I do agree that Microsoft maybe see this as a testing ground for incorporating this into a new console whenever that is released. But it's 32x territory again, and could do as much harm as good.

Microsoft has focused on gamers with it's consoles. They did a decent job - but the Xbox is now the console of choice for gamers, not the 'casuals'. Sony sold there 100 million consoles selling to casuals at the latter end of the console cycle. Nintendo have already taken them away from Sony and Microsoft. No Wii like control method is going to get them back in any worth while numbers.

I see the rest of this generation has been some what farcical. As Nintendo Wii sales slowly dry up and Sony/Microsoft scrabble around trying to recoup the costs of this gen. It's gonna be interesting to see who jumps first and how they do it. On the other hand though the extended gen is going to be good for software. The developers are gonna get some smart tech running in their games. See Castlevania/Force Unleashed 2.

I definitely see Nintendo going first this time round - and I don't see the hardware leapfrogging anything from the 360 or PS3... more likely to be equivalent with a built in motion+, built in wii-speak and I do think the next major thing we'll see from Nintendo is an online community more play and sharing rather than competition.

I reckon Nintendo will be the first ones to introduce a 'help me out' feature - where your friends can take control of your mans and guide you through an area you are stuck at.

/off topic

[Major Britten]

The thing about "next big things" is that they are naturally so owing to word of mouth, people talking about them etc. They're not created by ad campaigns nearly as often as some people think they are. Advertising doesn't have that sort of Medusa-like impact that some of you seem to think it does. All it ever really manages to do is make people aware that something exists, but it doesn't root them to the ground, unable to do anything else other than buy the thing.

I very much think that some people will quite happily fork out the £130+games for it, but if you're relying on that being the market for collectable-hunters then that market is not multi-millions in size, and for something like Reach there is already a self-selecting and significant fan base for the game who are making that purchase. It's more unusual for any game to be able to make such a sale from a standing start.

Instead, the target market for Kinect is overwhelmingly casual, but most casual users do not have Xboxes. So the actual cost to them is much higher. Meanwhile the regular Xbox users are the ones who didn't buy stuff like Scene It, were decidedly cool on You're In The Movies, and that kind of thing. They buy Halo, GTA, Call of Duty etc.

So Microsoft have basically targeted a market that doesn't have its console with a device that needs their console plus the device plus games. At that sort of price (£300-£350?) it's just not going to move a lot of units. I'd say they'll be *lucky* to sell 0.5m units.

Oh I agree with you, Ive been saying pretty much the same thing many times in this thread already, I dont think that Kinect is going to be a big success at all for MS and it is looking more and more like a white elephant like the 32X/Mega CD. The thing I dont agree with though is that they will only manage to sell 500k this year worldwide. I think Kinect will do quite well at launch simply because it is new and it has games that people (casuals) will want (Rare's Wii sports and Dance Central). The 360 has done very well in the states and UK and many are casual gamers. Also the 360 has seen a pretty big boost in sales since the redesign and price drop, some of those sales could be people buying it to get ready for Kinect. Many people could see this as a step up or an upgrade from the Wii which at the moment is looking dated and has been out for 4 years.

Thing is it is very, very difficult to guess and you cant go by whats popular on this forum, the people who come on here are not the market that MS are aiming for, although its very unpopular around these parts and other gaming forums with almost everyone dismissing it as a flop, our opinions do not represent the whole market. We are the minority and there has been many games that have been widely praised on here and predicted to be a hit which have bombed at retail. We wont know until December whether its sold well or not.

As for dreamcastmaster, perhaps youre source is right, if so I will happily admit I was wrong and I will laugh at how badly MS have handled the situation. But I just find it hard to believe that a company that has spent more money on marketing for Kinect than they did for the launch of the original xbox and the 360 systems, who have said several times they expect to sell 3 million units over the xmas period, have decided to do a major cut back on manufacturing this late and not make more than a million units to launch worldwide over the busiest shopping period across the globe. Also the pretentious way in which he posted didnt help either but hey ho.

[tiedtiger]

Let's take a look at what's happened in the last few days.

Retailers annoucing preorders have sold out.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/41306/GAMEs-Kinect-stock-sold-out

Really? if you are talking about selling 3 million units and the hardware has now been locked down and finished for some time how can you have outsold the preorders? Maybe the preorders have exceeded 3 million units?

We'll catch them out when the NPDs are released the following month.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/41307/NPD-locks-up-sales-data

Well look at that, how convienient...

My source is good but I don't want to "out" him or myself.

Of course what GAME doesn't say is what size of stock allocation they actually have.

Back in the day we said the same sort of thing about 3DOs. Because we had 2 per shop or something like that.

[tiedtiger]

Oh I agree with you, Ive been saying pretty much the same thing many times in this thread already, I dont think that Kinect is going to be a big success at all for MS and it is looking more and more like a white elephant like the 32X/Mega CD. The thing I dont agree with though is that they will only manage to sell 500k this year worldwide. I think Kinect will do quite well at launch simply because it is new and it has games that people (casuals) will want (Rare's Wii sports and Dance Central). The 360 has done very well in the states and UK and many are casual gamers. Also the 360 has seen a pretty big boost in sales since the redesign and price drop, some of those sales could be people buying it to get ready for Kinect. Many people could see this as a step up or an upgrade from the Wii which at the moment is looking dated and has been out for 4 years.

Thing is it is very, very difficult to guess and you cant go by whats popular on this forum, the people who come on here are not the market that MS are aiming for, although its very unpopular around these parts and other gaming forums with almost everyone dismissing it as a flop, our opinions do not represent the whole market. We are the minority and there has been many games that have been widely praised on here and predicted to be a hit which have bombed at retail. We wont know until December whether its sold well or not.

As for dreamcastmaster, perhaps youre source is right, if so I will happily admit I was wrong and I will laugh at how badly MS have handled the situation. But I just find it hard to believe that a company that has spent more money on marketing for Kinect than they did for the launch of the original xbox and the 360 systems, who have said several times they expect to sell 3 million units over the xmas period, have decided to do a major cut back on manufacturing this late and not make more than a million units to launch worldwide over the busiest shopping period across the globe.

Indeed.

Another interesting thing to note is that neither Amazon nor Play.com have it available for pre-order yet, which would suggest that there's not that much stock available. Curiouser and curiouser.

Also the pretentious way in which you posted didnt help either but hey ho.

Eh?

Oh do you mean dreamcastmaster?

[mushashi]

I think Kinect will do quite well at launch simply because it is new and it has games that people (casuals) will want (Rare's Wii sports and Dance Central). The 360 has done very well in the states and UK and many are casual gamers. Also the 360 has seen a pretty big boost in sales since the redesign and price drop, some of those sales could be people buying it to get ready for Kinect. Many people could see this as a step up or an upgrade from the Wii which at the moment is looking dated and has been out for 4 years.

I think it might be a bit of stretch to say the Xbox brand is big amongst casual gamers (assuming your definition of casual gamers are the sort of people who bought a DS for Brain Training or a Wii for Wii Sports/Wii Fit), I'd think it be safer to say it's been popular with the sort of gamer who buys FIFA/WWE/NFS every year, who in the past would have been described as the stereotypical casual gamer (or a PlayStation owner).

Kinect is aimed squarely at the traditionally game hating market that Nintendo went after.

Microsoft must have a fair few units ready for this, they keep on stating they are aiming for this to be their biggest hardware launch ever, because if Dreamcastmaster is right, they're not backing up their talk with actually manufacturing the necessary amounts to make it so.

[masterhand]

Eh?

Oh do you mean dreamcastmaster?

Don't worry about it, people project things into text based on who's posting. You got accused of being a "know it all" despite what I was reading being well thought out and resoned disucssion by you.

[Padlocked]

Instead, the target market for Kinect is overwhelmingly casual, but most casual users do not have Xboxes. So the actual cost to them is much higher. Meanwhile the regular Xbox users are the ones who didn't buy stuff like Scene It, were decidedly cool on You're In The Movies, and that kind of thing. They buy Halo, GTA, Call of Duty etc.

So Microsoft have basically targeted a market that doesn't have its console with a device that needs their console plus the device plus games. At that sort of price (£300-£350?) it's just not going to move a lot of units. I'd say they'll be *lucky* to sell 0.5m units.

I reckon 5% market penetration, so 2 million, with ease. Then it'll hit an uphill struggle. Scene It and Movies averaged 500,000 sales in the first 20 weeks each (ignoring the last under-promoted, badly ported Scene It).

[masterhand]

What's the current install base for the 360?

[mushashi]

What's the current install base for the 360?

Reverse calculate the quote above yours, it's close enough.

Or ~21 something in the US and ~4+ in the UK if you want country specifics.

[scottcr]

What's the current install base for the 360?

Earth calling Boyatsea...

he's not interested in the xbox now - he's transferred his fanboydom to mobile casual gaming... it's not the same.

[Troublegum]

What's the current install base for the 360?

It was 40 million worldwide as of April when they released their financials.

Edit link - http://www.next-gen.biz/news/xbox-360-clears-40-million-sales

[MK-1601]

The thing about "next big things" is that they are naturally so owing to word of mouth, people talking about them etc. They're not created by ad campaigns nearly as often as some people think they are. Advertising doesn't have that sort of Medusa-like impact that some of you seem to think it does. All it ever really manages to do is make people aware that something exists, but it doesn't root them to the ground, unable to do anything else other than buy the thing.

I very much think that some people will quite happily fork out the £130+games for it, but if you're relying on that being the market for collectable-hunters then that market is not multi-millions in size, and for something like Reach there is already a self-selecting and significant fan base for the game who are making that purchase. It's more unusual for any game to be able to make such a sale from a standing start.

Instead, the target market for Kinect is overwhelmingly casual, but most casual users do not have Xboxes. So the actual cost to them is much higher. Meanwhile the regular Xbox users are the ones who didn't buy stuff like Scene It, were decidedly cool on You're In The Movies, and that kind of thing. They buy Halo, GTA, Call of Duty etc.

So Microsoft have basically targeted a market that doesn't have its console with a device that needs their console plus the device plus games. At that sort of price (£300-£350?) it's just not going to move a lot of units. I'd say they'll be *lucky* to sell 0.5m units.

I think it will completely fail to bring in casuals (price and the perception of the 360 as a young man's deathmachine), but there's probably a fair chunk of the current Xbox 360 userbase who are desperate enough for something genuinely novel (that they've been told for months is a big deal) that they'll take the plunge. There's not really any other big hardware launch to give them an alternative. I guess some will save their money for the 3DS, but there's pressure to have some big ticket item *before* Christmas.

1-2m I'd say. MS will undoubtedly stuff retail channels, do crazy bundles, give them away to shop staff or whatever they need to do to reach the face-saving 1 million at least.

I do wish people would stop comparing it to the 32X. Kudo Tsunoda would probably sacrifice a nut to have a game as good as Virtua Racing Deluxe.

[boxoctosis]

It was 40 million worldwide as of April when they released their financials.

Edit link - http://www.next-gen.biz/news/xbox-360-clears-40-million-sales

That's 40m sales. How many are still working and 'installed'. And how many have RROD'd and are sitting in a landfill just outside Frankfurt.

[Troublegum]

That's 40m sales. How many are still working and 'installed'. And how many have RROD'd and are sitting in a landfill just outside Frankfurt.

Well, obviously. It is completely impossible to calculate precisely how many of anything that has been sold is still actively used or functioning, unless it’s a device or product that must be hooked up online to work and can be tracked somehow. Fuzzy logic and dodgy maths is the only way to do it but a sales figure at least gives you a starting point of reference, even it is all downhill from there.

I agree with the comments so far of about 5% market penetration. The only way I can see it going up from there is if they bundle it with every 360 sold.

[mackemansj1]

I give up guessing the sales numbers for these types of things when the wii came out and smashed shit up. There was crow to be eaten around nearly every games forum back then so i will stop short of guessing numbers and just say that the launch games for me bar dance central look weak. I think i will hang fire and see early next year how its looking.

[Dandy_Sephy]

SCEE are stating they've sold 1.5million move controllers (presumably including everything), and they were downplaying the likelihood of high initial sales originally. Granted many of those will have been free wi a new console, but its still impressive. I'm not yet convinced a £130 Kinect can match that, even if it may be more promoted

[footle]

SCEE are stating they've sold 1.5million move controllers (presumably including everything), and they were downplaying the likelihood of high initial sales originally. Granted many of those will have been free wi a new console, but its still impressive. I'm not yet convinced a £130 Kinect can match that, even if it may be more promoted

Also, Move controllers == buy more than one for two player (I've two and a navigation controller, for example).