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TheSlugFormerlyKnownAsNap

Will the next gen bomb?

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Global recession, rising cost of games™, domination of smartphone/tablets, the rise of the casual market and free to play / pay to win gaming. Vitas and Wii Us that just won't sell. The Xbone being laughed off stage, the PS4 positioned as the last hope of hardcore gaming but with few announced titles to really back it up.

Me, I like shiny new stuff. I've been begging for more POWAR for ages and eventually moved to PC when I got tired of waiting. And there have been many more who did the same, discovering that Windows 7, Steam and full controller support removed most of the PC related horrors of the past with manually editing config files and drivers and clashing/crashing hardware mostly disappeared. The Xbone and PS4 now have an uphill battle on their hands to win us over and draw us back in their tightly regulated, expensive, closed off "ecosystems" with console/system exclusives.

So what do you reckon? Is the next gen fucked? Or will it bring a new golden dawn of gaming upon us?

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I dont know if it will crash as such, but it might take a bullet.

After attending the Eurogamer Expo, i was so disgruntled by things on offer i went out the very next day and bought a cheap i5 gaming PC and so far its been wonderful.

PS4 and Xbone will only be as good as whats on offer. and yes the game prices are stoopido.

im going to give Watch Dogs a dabble and possibly Need For Speed Rivals as test games for my new PC after all, they are only sub 30 quid each. Everything else runs great on it so should be ok. If they dont run to my satisfaction I'll consider speeding up the purchase of a PS4. But if they DO run really well... then whats the point?

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Maybe. We had similar topics in 2005, but in 2005 smartphones and tablets were just a twinkle in Steve jobs eye. The "are pcs good enough" argument however I don't think matters - consoles and the PC upgrade cycle aren't competing for similar audiences, except just at the start of a generation.

(You'll always find individuals who feel they're the exception, but over the course of nov/dec far more games consoles will be sold than up to date graphics cards).

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I think beyond the obvious big sales of the opening few weeks the Xbox One will struggle to keep it's momentum. PS4 not so much due to it's price point. It'll take the release of Titanfall to get the One going again and after that it'll be fine. PS4 I think will just sell steadily with an obvious peak coming (as with the One) with the release of Destiny next year.

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Is this another stealth 'PC's are better' thread?

Also, look at the sales of GTAV. GTA1VI, or whatever the next big console exclusive is on Next Gen, will sell more.

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Bomb? Crash? No. It'll start fairly slowly just as the current generation did but I expect by next Christmas that support for the current generation will be dwindling. 100m players or so aren't all going to switch permanently to PC or mobile devices or stubbornly stick with the previous generation when developers and publishers aren't.

The leap in fidelity might not be quite as dramatic as in the past but then nor is the cost. There will still be a noticeable difference in visuals, scope, etc., and also it won't take a PS3-esque couple of years to fully get to grips with the hardware; it's all fairly standard and developers will be getting 90% of the performance early on.

I think people forget how long it took this generation to gain any real traction and just how bad some of those launch titles were, especially on PS3 (yes, I'm looking at you, Mobile Suit Gundam).

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Is this another stealth 'PC's are better' thread?

Also, look at the sales of GTAV. GTA1VI, or whatever the next big console exclusive is on Next Gen, will sell more.

Sorry I mentioned the PC! but as an interim while the Next Gen finds its feet it works for me.

If i can get stuff like Titanfall running well, then im sorted for a bit.

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It's worth noting the current gen did very badly out of the gate, the first few years had sales much worse than the PS2 gen and it was only the length of the gen that helped it compete.

I reckon this gen will sell out at launch, drop off for a bit, then pick up momentum later, but overall sell to fewer people, but not enough to be called a bomb - a slow decline maybe.

Lots of industry projections are about wringing more cash out of the same or fewer people, which is a bit of an issue since higher prices (through micro-transaction hybrid models and copious DLC) prices new people out, creating a vicious cycle where yet more income needs to be wrung from existing customers, which alienates more potential new gamers, etc.

It's the "model trains" problem - something aimed at kids stops trying to get the new generation of kids, sells to existing audience, demographics change so they're selling to 20 and 30 year olds, ultimately becoming a high priced niche.

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I actually think compared to the last gen roll out, this is gonna blow that out the water. PS4 has a huge wave of positivity, the Bone has still a lot of MS fans, and this generation has gone on so long, as from the pre-order numbers, we can see there is significant demand. Plus there won't be a barren wasteland of nothing to play, everything coming out will be cross gen and then the exclusive stuff will start coming more and more. Look at tech sales, Apple products, the GTAV week one sales, still more than enough wealthy consumers around and willing to spend big day one.


Sorry I mentioned the PC! but as an interim while the Next Gen finds its feet it works for me.

If i can get stuff like Titanfall running well, then im sorted for a bit.

It's just how you wrote it came across as a bit of a 'master race' comment, but it could just be I've seen a lot of that around here recently. Apart from on forums, I know no one who's ditched console gaming to go PC as they couldn't wait. The average Game customer just won't ever bother with PC gaming, until maybe one day there is a Steam Box for the same price as a PS4/Bone and just as easy to use.

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Slightly OT, but Goaty would you mind providing a link to the PC you invested in as I am looking for one at the moment.

On topic, I do feel a crash coming, I will be investing in both next generation machines but I and the rest of rllmuk are not the norm. The most significant period in my opinion would be around 4 months after launch when all the early adopters have got their consoles and the launch hype has died down. How will the big 2 maintain the momentum ? only time will tell I suppose and if the Steambox is promoted properly there could be a new Sheriff in town.

EDIT : One must also add that a significant amount of people don't see any reason to upgrade, especially with the amount of games available for current gen and the popularity of GTA 5, playstation plus and games like GT6 on the horizon.

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I'm going to sound like a rude twat and i apologise in advance but if your going to buy NFS Rivals then i can kind of forsee why your going to be disappointed.

Sadly being such a well selling series, if everyone takes your view and buy's it i can also forsee why there will be a crash.

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No it won't bomb - it will launch to sold our signs and limited stock over the xmas period, then everybody will declare it dead on arrival in early 2014 when sales drop hugely and there are no new titles to drive sales, then the big games will flow and sales in Xmas 14 will be huge and normal service will be resumed.

All of this has happened before, all of this will happen again.

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I think it's going to be pretty slow for a while, ordinary people just don't want to pay £50 for a game and controllers, let alone the high price of the consoles themselves plus subscriptions etc.

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Itl do what the 360 did when most people were fairly happy on ps2s. It'll start with a bang...all of those preorders fulfilled.....then all 20 odd launch games. Then a lull, probably 2 years of medium sales, then it just becomes the current gen. You need one of the sytems to continue gaming. And done.

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Slightly OT, but Goaty would you mind providing a link to the PC you invested in as I am looking for one at the moment.

i just bought an unspecced one off an ebay seller so no link sorry!

i grabbed a used Geforce Ti Card and 16gb of Memory and wahey.

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The longer the tail on the current generation, stands to reason the longer it takes for the next generation to be adopted.

The problem is whether or not the platform holders can be patient with their shareholders demanding more. Sony is the most vulnerable this time around, aren't they?

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The longer the tail on the current generation, stands to reason the longer it takes for the next generation to be adopted.

The problem is whether or not the platform holders can be patient with their shareholders demanding more. Sony is the most vulnerable this time around, aren't they?

Sony are unusual as they seem to be able to get away with loss making divisions without internal uproar. Their Bravia range has seen endless losses yet they still persist. I have no evidence but I'd imagine Xperia would be the same. I'd guess they just see it as important keeping the Sony name out there no matter what.

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I think this is completely down to the games. People will go where the games are, as long as we get great games on consoles and handhelds, which you can't get on mobile or pc, they will still be very much relevant.

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I've never known such doom and gloom from a forum that's sole reason for being here is that we're all supposed to be into videogames more than the next guy.

It honestly feels like a lot of people here have simply grown out of, or fallen out of love with games, leaving them with this odd negativity about anything anyone announces.

I love videogames, but I have very little interest in the new consoles and I suspect they will both struggle.
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I'll say from the start I am mainly a PC gamer these days due to the flexibility to do other stuff but I do have a 360 that I use occasionally. The new consoles are a necessary step forward in graphical power and no doubt the extra cores of the PS4 and One using similar architecture will allow PC developers to more readily develop multi-core games for PCs where it's sort of stagnated for non PC specific titles.

That said though, it's not going to be the leap that the 360 was over the original xbox which was perhaps specced a little lightly memory wise. Even now I could buy battlefield 3 or Skyrimm and play on the latest all singing PC but the 360 user can still essentially play the same game and get the same experience. The graphics won't be quite as good but it's not at the point where it's a massive step to the gamer.

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I believe that, like the Wii U, there will be an initial spike in launch sales and then a massive slump in both systems. A combination of them being too expensive and too rooted in the old way of doing things (and by that I mean tied to a TV, over priced disk based games etc) will see them both suffer. They'll start selling eventually, but I don't think it will be any one game that does it and you won't see something like GTA6 for years (and COD:Dogs 2 will be on 360 and PS3 as well, as will Fifa 15). They'll both be a tough sell beyond the small hardcore userbase that will snaffle them up at launch. The other thing is that people keep using sales of iPads and similarly priced things as proof that people will drop similar cash on consoles. I don't agree with that. I think the range of uses that you can get from a tablet etc (reading, playing games, taking photos, watching films etc etc all on the go and not beholden to the living room) is the main reason for their growth. You can't use any of these reasons for buying a console.

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