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3 hours ago, Steely said:

Bloody hell! First world problems there Hannay! Thats a great team, really not much room for improvement. Personally, out of them all, the only player I've never liked is Sanchez - 87 Rated IF Son would be my prem preference.

 

Clutching at straws... Maybe add an in form Azpi! Valencia over Walker, De Gea over Courtious.

 

Or spend all your money on the icons (3 Basic or 1 Mega!), but I've basically become an Icon salesman over the past few days haha :lol: I need to reign it in a bit.

I fancy an icon, what is good?

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15 minutes ago, gooner4life said:

League SBC players should get orange links to everyone like icons I think, they are very expensive and require so much to give away for them, the least they could do is let you link them in any team.

 

To be fair, there’s a lot EA should do! :)

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On 12/02/2018 at 13:42, Steely said:

@AlfromSleep I've been thinking about doing this myself, selling up what I have in an attempt to fund an icon to call my own, I was thinking more along the SBC route though.

 

For me, if I am going to do any of the SBCs, there are two I haven't played which I am very tempted by: Okocha and Rui Costa (Both around 500k SBC)

 

The one I know I like and would go for is Luis Hernandez, he is closer to 900k though because he needs an icon. (I would do the Inzaghi SBC first (around 440k) just to get him to trade him in. At least that way I will have a glimmer of hope of getting some monies back from Inzaghis packs!) Hernandez was the first Icon I gave the full run out and he was stand out good for me. He is also a fucking ball ache to play against.

 

I would be tempted by Van Basten also, he doesn't have the explosive pace Hernandez has but he tall and strong, good in the air from goal kicks, corners. His movement, dribbling and finishing for me over the 18 games I have used him has been properly brilliant.

 

(These are all SBC though! So may not help as you might prefer the fall back of being able to sell.)

 

Players I wouldn't recommend. (Who I have used)

-Shearer

-Bergkamp

-Shevchenko (Saying that I've only used him for 5 games, but he hasn't been up to much! Might be worth loaning him yourself for like 10k, get the feels.)

 

Edit: You could pick up 91 rated Van Basten or 85 rated Hernandez for around 500k

 

@hannay this is my icon post from the previous page! More expensive Icons I have used and would recommend (I'm kind of pointing out the obvious here but...) Ronaldinho and Thiery Henry. Though, they are full budget blowers. (And that's not even for there top cards.)

 

https://www.futbin.com/18/players?page=4&version=icons&sort=ps_price&order=asc

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22 hours ago, gooner4life said:

Apparently we are looking at a big FUT Market crash this weekend, due to Lunar New Year, I don't remember how it went last year, but lots of people are losing interest, 2 of the biggest pro's in France have quit the game in the last week, 2 guys who have been world champion at some point, Fifa is currently 18th in the list for twitch viewers, it had less than 1000 people watching it yesterday evening.

 

People losing interest, the market should die, good time to sell up today and then buy back after the crash.

 

Would that just affect the gold cards or all inc Icons?

 

If everything I’ll stick my team on the market today!

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I not sure if we get one this thursday as we got 2 last week.

 

I've been using this recently, which I've found pretty useful. (Though it hasn't listed out on any potential valentines event, if one does drop.) 

 

https://www.fifauteam.com/fifa-18-schedule-dates/#February

 

According to this, its POTM Friday along with round 1 of the ratings refresh (First of three), with the lunar event happening on the 19th Feb. (Again not sure how accurate it is, only started using it recently.)

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If Aguero gets POTM (which looks likely, although it could still be De Bruyne or Wilson) it’s going to be very expensive I think. POTM cards are usually +2 above highest rated, which means he’ll be a 95 rated card. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an IF Aguero card as one of the requirements. Did anyone this high rated get a POTM last year? If so, what were the SBC’s like?

 

Edit: just looked it up. Not too bad. Needed Zlatan himself, and then 2 Journey SBC’s and a Sweden SBC. Hopefully EA will do something similar this time around:

SBC 1 - Argentinian Man City Player with minimum 4 chem (to stop you using Otamendi)

SBC 2 - teams he scored against in January 

SBC 3 - Argentina based squad with IF’s

SBC 4 - clubs he’s played for: MCFC, Athletico Madrid + Inderpendiente with a high rating.

 

So that’s my prediction!

Edited by LiMuBai
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If it's an 95 rated card it's going to be an insanely expensive SBC. My guess would be Aguero himself and something along the lines of an 87+ with 2-3 in forms to really hike the price up!

 

Edit: Actually given Agueros 93 card is currently going for 2.3M maybe his POTM with require an IF Aguero. (He does have a few to be fair! (4))

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(Title isn't inferring that MUT has any dummies, just that this is a condensed version to

make understanding EOMM for users) I also want to thank several guys from FIFA forums for

helping me get information and sharing things that they had. This is a team effort. Also

the tone of this will not be pure Madden since Madden is one of many games effected and in

all probability not the most effected game (guessing FIFA).

 

OK last week I brought you this http://www.muthead.com/forums/madden/mut-discussion/ea-

feedback/1312612-mut-nostradamus-part-ii-a-genuine-psa-to-pack

 

I want to go into more detail about EOMM - Engagement Optimized MatchMaking framework.

First let's get an understanding of why EOMM is placed in the game. We are playing a game

that has one of the highest ranges of variance that there are (FIFA maybe being the only

greater in EA realm). Meaning you have great variation in user skill, great variation in

team OVR (ability), and low variation in winning combinations.

 

Example is let's say you have a 71 OVR Madden 18 team and play a 95 OVR team. If playing

to stats the 95 team should be able to power run and score every possesion. It really

doesn't matter about the skill level of the user here. Sure a good user could make it

harder to score but in reality even the worst users could score on every possession. On

the flip side you have war games where if you were a great user and given a pistol you

would probably take out a terrible user with best gun easily. So the equivalent to a 95

OVR in a war game would be a new crappy user getting a nuke and can set it off every 2

mins. (This is just a cause for EOMM in EA's minds, it does not help bad user or team)

 

So what are the two purposes for EOMM from EA's point of view (in their docs):

1. To keep people playing the game.

2. To get people to spend money on upgrades.

 

That's it. Not to make things fair or competitive or anything else.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Step 1 - Collecting Game Meta

EA has meta data on every person. Some people more than others and this probably varies by

game. Here are things outlined by EA that are meta that they capture.

1. OVR (this term varies by game, could be level, or whatever)

2. Coin amount

3. Points on user account (I saw allusions to this so I am assuming they are capturing this

but it was not specifically mentioned)

4. Binder (term varies by game) - used to determine what preferences you might have or what

kind of user you are.

5. Last players/things bought/sold.

6. Last login. HUGE HUGE HUGE!!!

7. Time played. I am sure this is measured differently in each game.

8. Others. There are other things alluded to. Ask me if you have a question but trying to

condense things.

 

Notes:

- Each of these things attribute to your game meta data for your user. Players with the

exact same attributes will have similar matchmaking and pack pulls (there are other things

that effect matchmaking but this is where it starts).

- Churn = your likelihood to quit playing the game over a given amount of time. If you are

in a churn phase it is the most detrimental to EA (think daily quicksells) because if you

aren't playing or logging in you aren't spending money. Think making cold calls in a sales

job - you might only sell 1 in a 100 so you just have to make the calls. Churn is most

correlated with #6 and also #7 along with other meta described below.

- OVR = you cannot just switch your lineup to change your meta OVR. OVR is what you are

playing with. I am not sure how historical it tracks for each game or for Madden but

switching your players right before a match or pack pull will not necessisarly change your

meta the way you intend.

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Step 2 - Collecting Personal Meta

Everything I read about EOMM makes me want to puke. But this section is the worst and most

disgusting and was specifically mentioned by EA in their EOMM docs. Enjoy...

1. Age

2. Gender

3. Country/location

4. Economics

5. Connection type

6. Many other things...

 

Notes:

- So first of all let's think about this in terms of Madden. You play Madden online and

you don't enter any of this info in when you play Madden. Well how does EA get it. First

premise is that they could get the data from Microsoft or PSN. I am not sure about this.

I don't know of any API mechanisms that either of these companies have to share this data

(I used to be a Facebook API developer back in the day) and both would probably not want to

be associated with API misusage. I am not saying Microsoft or PSN does not, they could but

I don't think so.

 

So that leaves three sources for Madden and if I could bet, they use all 3...

#1 Amazon/Twitch - Aligning your madden account with Twitch gives EA the most data. Amazon

has a TON of info on your including economic forecasting plus buying patterns on top of

main data sets. The Amazon API is passed to Twitch which is passed to EA. All your data

belong to EA. (Muthead uses Twitch login so without Muthead even doing anything wrong, EA

can also tell which users log into Muthead... they can track you)

#2 NFL.com - There is a base model of signing up through Madden. This is the most basic

tier of information though and going through nfl.com you could probably give all fake

data... I doubt this is as important to EA.

#3 Facebook - The most intrusive company in the world. They would sell the last time you

farted to probiatic companies if they could get the data. If your Facebook account is

linked to anything EA, well all your data belong to EA. They might not have your "buying

patterns" but Facebook's API can give them everything else.

 

- So what if I am a kid and use my mom's amazon account? Just laying out this example

because I saw this alluded to in a couple of their docs. First they don't think any women

play sports games. So they are probably going to guess that you are a kid based a women's

account and other data. They are probably sophisticated enough to tell if you are kid or

husband. But anyway if you want a kid's profile, use your wife's Amazon login. Might not

work but could.

- What is the difference between kid/adult? I don't know for sure but the statements given

alluded to the following. A kid has a very finite amount of money. EA needs to entice the

kid to spend points as quickly as possible. I am gathering that they will have better

pulls in general and for sure if using money (points). An adult that has good pulls may be

less likely to buy more packs if getting good pulls and EA thinks that an adult will keep

spending to a point, until adult gets what they want or enough coin to get what they want.

Yes EA understands that adult will not keep buying packs forever without good pulls. And

yes the meta before effects these pulls - OVR, coins, everything.

- What's up with location? Well different global locations have different cultures around

microtransactions. So EA may increase/decrease pack odds or change matchmaking if you are

in a certain country.

- What's up with connection type? Well when used with location this is a key indicator or

economic status.

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Step 3 - Collecting Gameplay Meta

This is different for any game but let's use Madden as an example.

1. Streak - so the amount of wins or losses in a row. This is talked about in a ton of EA

docs. They have statistical algorithms showing your churn chance based on your current

streak. So in the EOMM model they will try to pair you with weaker players if you are on a

losing streak or give you better pull rates. This is not a hard black and white thing.

You will not get the easiest guy in the world if you lose 4 in a row it means that you will

probably get someone much weaker than average. On the pack pull side this is funny because

many people who play DC notice that if the lose their first game their gold packs are on

average much better than normal.

2. ELO - EA has talked about ELO for years. ELO was mentioned in their docs... But it is

just a small part of matchmaking. ELO represents your W/L, who you have won or lost

against, margin (who knows how far this goes), and so on from a historical aspect weighted to current. In one EA doc there was reference that ELO may be temporarily discarded if your last login date is too far out of range. Whether this is because EA thinks you have a better chance of playing more if you are matched with easier players or if EA thinks maybe you are rusty if you haven't played in a while.

3. Style - I honestly have no fricking clue what EA means by this but was mentioned enough

that I need to mention it. So EA knows you pass a lot and offense first... Do they pair

you with like or different players based on this? Do they give you WRs as pack pulls. Who knows. It was mentioned.

 

Note - It was indicated during matchmaking that OVR does matter. Meaning that if you have an 85 OVR team you are likely to be in a range closer to that 85 OVR. This will also depend on your ability too. Meaning if you have a very high ability that EA will try to match you with 85-90 teams with high ability but if those teams don't come up in an allotted time, you will move on to higher OVR teams. At the same time if you have an 85 OVR team and you are bad, you may get other 85 OVR teams even if rare or even lower. And note that if you were bad and playing 85 OVR teams with yours, you could stay in that loop for a while until you had a streak that made EA push you up. Given your ELO is not win or lose but also who you won or lost against. Beating another bad player does not bump you up much.

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Conclusion

 

All of these meta variables plus many more things factor into your game matchmaking and pack pull rates. There is nothing random about either of them. I gave some examples of how pull rates or matchmaking is effected but in no way did I give you an exact science.

 

There are for sure factors that are weighted higher in EOMM. Those are churn risk and OVR. Meaning if you can change the meta behind those you are more likely to have better matchmaking and better pull rates.

 

Where does EA go from here? They will do it until they can't. China has already banned all EA games with loot boxes (I would like to hear from someone in China because I read the legislation but none of the enforcement). China said no odds on loot boxes (packs) no game.

EOMM has nothing to do with actual gameplay but is what is going to be used against EA in the form of legislation and litigation. Several countries have already gotten the ball rolling in Europe.

 

But if you continue to give EA money understand everything in here is condensed from EA's own documents/threads and that what you are getting for your money is based on your meta. I wish everyone luck, so if the pack odds are against you... change your meta.   My angle?  I don't want others to be duped or lose money to a company like this.  Also I want to burn this model down as I will quit this year or before M19.   If I decide to play M24 in 5 years I want to come back to a fair game. 

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I’m fine with EA using data about me to aid with matchmaking me against similar opponents, but pack odds should be pack odds. My spending habits, age, preferences, team rating, playing ability, playing frequency, etc should not determine the likelihood of me pulling something good from a pack.

 

And to be honest, although I can’t prove it, it does seem like I had much better pack luck when I first started playing FIFA than I do now that I play every night.

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So, winter upgrades. How do they work? Is it just a new card added to the pool? Or do your existing cards get upgraded? Do inform cards get upgraded? 

 

For instance, David De Gea: say  I have both his standard 90 NIF and his 91 IF, and his regular gold card gets upgraded to 91, will my 90 NIF get upgraded to 91 and my 91 IF to 92?

 

Will that affect the price of his 91 IF? I’m assuming the same card will be worth more as a 92 IF?

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35 minutes ago, gooner4life said:

Only the special cards get upgraded the normal cards get replaced in packs for the new rating.

 

I didn’t know IFs got upgraded, then again, I never had any at this stage in 17 so wouldn’t have noticed! Hoping that Milinkovic-Savic gets boosted. 

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Rated and Value: TOTY Ramos, 97 and 1.3m when I packed him.

 

I bought points in Fifa... 14 I think? Maybe 15. But I usually stop playing FUT by end of January. So I might be doing well to keep me around.

However, I swapped to PC on Fifa 17, which despite using the same EA login, and carrying over my EA catalogue coins, reset my FUT date to zero each time.  

 

So fuck knows.

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