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Flopwatch 2017


Harsin
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5 hours ago, Dig Dug said:

Wolfenstein seems like it will be a slow burner. Bethesda will think it failed when it doesn't sell out week 1 but I think a lot of people will be buying it over the next year.

 

At full price? or at a massive discount? 1 fullprice sale is worth multiple heavily discounted sales, basic maths, hence the focus on first week/month sales.

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4 hours ago, mushashi said:

 

At full price? or at a massive discount? 1 fullprice sale is worth multiple heavily discounted sales, basic maths, hence the focus on first week/month sales.

Wolfenstein screams a game people would pay £30 for. If losing that £20 is a huge issue then Bethesda only have themselves to blame for trying to compete with an extra crazy holiday period and not the new year period.

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On ‎30‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 10:21, Down by Law said:

It's Bethesda of course it will flop sales wise. 

 

The new order came out when everyone was thirsty for a decent fps on the console. I fear it will get lost in the shuffle this time, evil within will do even worse. Lots of people got burned on that one, at launch, one of the worst performing game I have ever bought

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Evil Within 2 is dead on arrival. I'm the sort of person that usually loves those sort of games and if it can't get me interested well good luck with the general public. Prey level flop. 

 

Wolfenstein will be OK on brand name alone but still expect it to be massively down on the New Order's numbers

 

At a respective half and quarter of the previous titles sales, sad to say I got this one right besides them both looking to be much improved on their predecssors.

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I wonder how Ubisoft feel about Origins doing about the same as Syndicate. That one was considered a bit of an underperformer (whilst still selling well by normal person metrics). Can't imagine they wanted the triumphant return of AC selling as well as the one that prompted them to take a break.

 

Bethesda keep doing this, you think they'd learn eventually.

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1 hour ago, mdn2 said:

Sorry, I meant in the individual format charts. It was beaten by both versions of Assassins Creed.

 

I don't think so. I've read that on the individual format chart Mario actually came top. AC only beats it with combined platform sales.

 

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2017/10/super_mario_odyssey_loses_out_to_assassins_creed_origins_in_uk_charts_race

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However, it's worth noting that Assassin's Creed Origins launched on PlayStation 4, Xbox One and PC, while Super Mario Odyssey was exclusive to a single console. In fact, if you look at the single-format chart - which breaks down game sales on individual systems - Mario's latest outing is actually the UK's number one, beating out the PS4 version of Assassin's Creed Origins (which accounted for around 60 percent of that game's total sales).

 

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58 minutes ago, rgraves said:

 

I don't think so. I've read that on the individual format chart Mario actually came top. AC only beats it with combined platform sales.

 

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2017/10/super_mario_odyssey_loses_out_to_assassins_creed_origins_in_uk_charts_race

 

 

they're only buying mario because AC origins isn't on the switch...

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On 10/28/2017 at 20:21, Dig Dug said:

Wolfenstein screams a game people would pay £30 for. If losing that £20 is a huge issue then Bethesda only have themselves to blame for trying to compete with an extra crazy holiday period and not the new year period.

 

Why exactly should it be priced lower?

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Not saying it should, just saying a lot of people would pay £30 for it but probably not £50 which would have made it better to release when the market wasn't getting flooded by other big titles that people are going to pay £50 for over Wolfenstein.

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I don’t think it being £30 would help it at all if it was still releasing the same day as two other big hitters. That’s still £80 to lay down for two games that you’re not going to have the time to play anyway. (Assuming you pay the RRP of digital).

 

I’m curious to see the first week figures for it in the US.

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On 28/10/2017 at 10:23, Dig Dug said:

Wolfenstein seems like it will be a slow burner. Bethesda will think it failed when it doesn't sell out week 1 but I think a lot of people will be buying it over the next year.

Wolfenstein is a self-contained single-player game. It doesn't really need to be played on day one like a lot of MP games, or games with MP elements. The self life of Wolfenstein 2 should therefore be a bit longer, although sales will even out over time. Unfortunately Bethesda will expect it to sell stacks over the next couple of weeks, treating it like every other big game.

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If Wolfenstein was £29.99 I would have bought it without hesitation. At full price, and as a pro owner, citing Bethesda's shocking support of the system so far (where is the Evil Within 2 support?) no way was I going to drop £40-£45 on it


After Wipeout Omega,  Uncharted LL and Yakuza Kiwami all cost slightly more than £20 at release and provided me with over 60-70 hours of gameplay between them I'm not in a rush to drop top dollar on new releases anymore.

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Wolfenstein is a golden egg for marketing. Hire a publicist to play on the Nazi uprising and make media write tons about it. I would go for Wolfenstein if it wasn't for Mario. It's such a great game that it deserves to be a system seller. 

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19 hours ago, Vimster said:

Wolfenstein is a self-contained single-player game. It doesn't really need to be played on day one like a lot of MP games, or games with MP elements. The self life of Wolfenstein 2 should therefore be a bit longer, although sales will even out over time. Unfortunately Bethesda will expect it to sell stacks over the next couple of weeks, treating it like every other big game.

 

 

It's this kind of anecdotal evidence of the thinking of the average games buyer that explains why most big budget games have decided to spend money on multiplayer or go open world with loads of content, you practically have to if you want lots of people to spend fullprice now.

 

In Wolfenstein's case, the devs stated they didn't think multiplayer went well with the story elements so chose to leave it out, which might turn out to be a bad decision as any sequel hinges on the financial performance of this one, the same for all these other linear Zenimax games which didn't choose to add all the stuff everybody else has done to make them more appealing to a massmarket audience, as the comments/job postings from the devs themselves would indicate they are going to have to do something different next time.

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1 minute ago, mushashi said:

It's this kind of anecdotal evidence of the thinking of the average games buyer that explains why most big budget games have decided to spend money on multiplayer or go open world with loads of content, you practically have to if you want lots of people to spend fullprice now.

 

Sure. Or just don't release it on Mario + Assassins Creed day. Try February, September or towards the end of November when the big releases have gone by.

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On 15/10/2017 at 10:36, Gorf King said:

Still hardly a 'flop', but physical sales are well, well down for Destiny 2 compared to the original - both in the UK (http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/destiny-2-sells-less-than-half-of-its-predecessor-at-week-one-retail/0186865) and the US (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/activision-destiny-2-physical-game-sales-fell-more-than-50-percent-versus-original.html). Digital sales are up, but Activision Blizzard haven't said by how much exactly, nor the total sales figure. So it seems likely it's underperformed to date (though part of that conclusion is fed by the completely unscientific observation on my part that far fewer on my friends list are actively playing a month or so in, compared to the original).

 

Given it's a game so obviously about phased releasing of content and 'events', and also given that the PC release is just around the corner, it's hard to make any longer-term predictions at this point, but when the release of D2's first Iron Banner event fails to grab more players or slow the drop-off in engagement, there may be a bit of a problem - although going by Luke Smith's comments in the latest issue of EDGE I think they're not so concerned about players stopping playing, as getting enough 'new' players in with each release, and ensuring they come back for each expansion - the fact that the content takes a lot less time to complete and the activities aren't as replayable or materially rewarding, and therefore players stop playing sooner, seems to be 'a good thing' in the new rationale. I'm not sure that in the online sector, players disengaging after a lot less play is as good/neutral as Luke says, or that it doesn't negatively impact on their decision whether to buy more content down the line. Still to early to call, but I reckon Bungie might be in for a bit of an unpleasant surprise with this one after all.

 

It appears they're not in for such an unpleasant surprise:

Most relevant to a topic that appeared upthread - about the proportion of all sales that are digital - is that apparently D2 has set a new record for Activision in being their first title where over 50% of all full title sales have been downloads as opposed to disc-based. Seems those traditional sales charts which only take retail into account are more pointless than ever.

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don't know how anybody would get digital sales figures from closed platforms like nintendo eshop, PSN or xbox marketplace, who'd have no interest in sharing. 

 

then you've got actual copies sold, but games all sell at different price points too, so 100 copies of Mario Odyssey isn't the same as 100 copies of say Forza Horizon 3 on discount in terms of gross - then you've got DLC and consumables to add into the mix for titles like Destiny 2 & GTA V.

 

its never been harder to know who and what is doing well, until a publisher cans a franchise or goes under.

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8 hours ago, Gorf King said:

Most relevant to a topic that appeared upthread - about the proportion of all sales that are digital - is that apparently D2 has set a new record for Activision in being their first title where over 50% of all full title sales have been downloads as opposed to disc-based. Seems those traditional sales charts which only take retail into account are more pointless than ever.

 

Is that because they waited until the PC release...?!

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