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MCU Phase 4 and beyond - Spidey to stay in the MCU! (warning: Endgame and Far From Home spoilers)


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Sony would probably look at that kind of figure and say that that is potentially the kind of return they'd expect from, ooh... Maybe 4, 5 years of movies if they knock out a few spin offs with lower expectations and a mainline film or 2 underperform.

 

They'll say no.

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1 hour ago, Chindie said:

Sony would probably look at that kind of figure and say that that is potentially the kind of return they'd expect from, ooh... Maybe 4, 5 years of movies if they knock out a few spin offs with lower expectations and a mainline film or 2 underperform.

 

They'll say no.

 

I'm not so sure it would be such a simple decision - remember box office is a long way from profit.  For most of the world you might only get around 50% of the ticket revenue, reudcing to 25% for China grosses.  Then you have production and any backend deals to consider before the final numbers. 

 

Estimates put Homecoming at $200m profit - https://deadline.com/2018/03/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-profit-2017-1202350621/ - which seems realistic.  Venom was probably similar (it grossed less but had a lower production budget) and I imagine Far From Home will be a bit above those profit numbers. Chuck in Spiderverse and you might, probably not quite, but might get to around $800m profit from those 4 films. And remember, it has been a good period for Spiderman films, if you head back to the ASM period the total profit over that period will be much lower. 

 

But let's say that the current success does continue, we're effectively saying Sony can project around $800m profit every 2-3 years if they keep up the current release schedule (again, health warning, between Spiderman 3 and Homecoming - 10 years - they only released 2 films, both of which were not that profitable. So at the current success and schedule it will take Sony around 15 years to earn the $5bn that Disney might be offering.  If Spiderman films get more popular then it will take less time, but if we revert back to ASM levels of releases and profits it will take much longer. And, of course, if they take $5bn now that's not to say that that the revenue they might have generated from future SM films will be gone - you would assume Sony will schedule in other films to fill their release schedule which would likely generate some profits for the Studio.

 

The rumour is probably BS but it would not be a clear cut no from Sony imo. Indeed, if it was a true offer I'd rather suspect it would be accepted by Sony looking at the above numbers. Frankly, I'd be more surprised at Disney offering such a number than Sony accepting such a number.

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What is the state of Sony Corporation's finances at the moment? Remember how they sold a ton of assets 5 or so years ago?

 

A couple of years in the red again and for $4/5 billion and Spider-man is Disney's.

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1 hour ago, mansizerooster said:

Disney bought the entirety of Marvel Entertainment for $4.24 billion, so paying that for a single character that they already have the use of is quite clearly just silly fanboy nonsense.

Im not sure but I THINK the value may have gone up a bit in the last decade. 

 

Maybe.

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12 minutes ago, The Hierophant said:

That will soon come down in price though. 


I’m not sure, it’s meant to be a limited run item, like the phase one Blu Ray suitcase set. There are plenty of other options for individual 4K purchases and box sets, plus Disney+ will have all of these films too. This is purely a hardcore collectors piece.

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On 10/10/2019 at 11:26, JohnC said:

Rumours from an apparently credible source that Disney want to throw $4-5 billion at Sony to buy back Spider-Man. No idea if they would go for that though. 

Its Mike Sutton so its garbage and highly unreliable.

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Bleeding Cool (I know...) recently reported some gossip that the Spider-Man dispute was largely down to Alan Horn (whom you might remember for firing James Gunn) misunderstanding the character's rights situation:

 

https://www.bleedingcool.com/2019/09/29/gossip-so-what-did-happen-with-marvel-and-sony-over-spider-man-anyway/

 

Quote

So, when Disney demanded a greater percentage of revenue, a 50/50 deal, for the Marvel Studios Spider-Man films. Sony balked, pulled the deal and everything went south. Until a few days when it all got sorted out.

 

But what really happened?

 

I’m told the Disney gossip is that Disney’s Alan Horn had got the situation with the rights all backwards, in his head. That he somehow thought that Disney was licensing Spider-Man to Sony to use, and not that Sony held the rights. And so, when Sony didn’t agree to the demanded new deal, Horn told them that Disney wouldn’t allow them to use Spider-Man anymore, totally ignorant to the rights situation. And Sony said ‘fine’.

 

Cue the involvement of Kevin Feige, who did know the score, and was brought in to negotiate directly with Sony instead of Horn, and sort everything out…  the word is that Disney now receive 25 percent of the profits from Spider-Man 3, but they also have to pay a similar percentage of the production costs – and Sony can also use Spider-Man to some degree in their other non-Spider-Man movies, such as Venom, Morbius, Silver Sable, Black Cat, Madame Web, whatever they are going for…

 

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On 11/10/2019 at 07:16, Super Craig said:

Hopefully this means that the Guardians of the Galaxy, Ant-man and Doctor Strange 4K discs are on the way.

They're almost certainly on the way, as I spunked money on the US releases this week. Amazon were doing buy two, get a third item free. 

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On 10/10/2019 at 12:04, Chindie said:

Sony would probably look at that kind of figure and say that that is potentially the kind of return they'd expect from, ooh... Maybe 4, 5 years of movies if they knock out a few spin offs with lower expectations and a mainline film or 2 underperform.

 

They'll say no.


Absolutely not. Thats not how it works.

You make a film for $200m. If you front that all yourself ( a huge risk) you have to spend another $100m marketing it (at least)

It does $1bn at box office, of which around half comes back to you. And so you break even. You then likely make around $100m profit from Vod, Svod and blu ray deals after expenses. Maybe double that. 

The reality is that if you make a $200m dollar movie that sees $1.3bn revenue, you likely double your money. But if its a flop you all lose.

A $4bn offer from Disney would be absolutely jumped upon in a second. 

I dont know where these stories come from but they are ludicrous.

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7 hours ago, Indistinct chattering said:


Absolutely not. Thats not how it works.

You make a film for $200m. If you front that all yourself ( a huge risk) you have to spend another $100m marketing it (at least)

It does $1bn at box office, of which around half comes back to you. And so you break even. You then likely make around $100m profit from Vod, Svod and blu ray deals after expenses. Maybe double that. 

The reality is that if you make a $200m dollar movie that sees $1.3bn revenue, you likely double your money. But if its a flop you all lose.

A $4bn offer from Disney would be absolutely jumped upon in a second. 

I dont know where these stories come from but they are ludicrous.

 

Yes I shouldn't have used the box office as shorthand, I do understand how profit works let alone movie financing.

 

Obviously this story is absurd but assuming for a moment it isn't, I still don't think it's guaranteed they'd sell. Spider-Man is Sony's biggest franchise by miles, one that they have plans to mine extensively over the coming years (lest we forget the next film in the series they're bringing out is Morbius, a C list villain at best, and they're moving forward with plans on even the most minor of characters). Sony will be looking at the Spider-Man licence to earn them significant return over the coming years, potentially over dozens of films. They don't really have anything they would expect to fill the gap if they lost the licence. And they also will know they're very unlikely to get a licence on the terms they have with Spider-Man either.

 

So while they would look to get an unprecedented return on losing the franchise, they would also be agreeing to fundamentally alter the future outlook of the business for years to come for an (admittedly stupid) in essence immediate return. I'm not sure they'd take the money in light of agreeing to give up their crown jewels.

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