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Football Thread 2019/2020

gospvg

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Plissken

Plissken

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I think I said it at the time - or rather quoted someone else - but it was an unavoidable mistake to appoint him.  His unbeaten start was down to massive amounts of luck plus a squad ecstatic to free of Mourinho.  That papered over the cracks of several years of drift. Ultimately, the guy was unbeaten for something like 14 games.  Everyone knew he wasn't going to keep it up, but if the board hadn't appointed him, they would have still had the same problem and the papers would be attacking the new guy and the board, saying, well, they should have appointed the guy who was unbeaten for something like 14 games.

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Gotters

Gotters

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Simon Jordan kept calling it an unavoidable mistake and it was widely picked up on as a good line.

 

OGS record at the start of Utd was obviously a bit of a blip to anybody looking below the surface, much like Arsenal's long unbeaten run under Emery it was way at odds with the stats and Utd were outscoring their xG and conceding less than the chances they were giving up.

 

Interestingly Leicester are in a similar place at the moment, way outscoring what they should be, and Arsenal remain the same scoring too many and conceding too few for the chances.

 

I think the difference now between Utd & Arsenal (beyond the obvious huge income gap) is Arsenal seem to have laid a much better framework behind the scenes to rectify the problems, which are independent of Emery. Utd have none of this structure in place and Woodward remains as big an issue at the club as OGS.

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Chooch

Chooch

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Ole may or may not be a bad manager, but sacking him without making any other structural changes at Utd isn't going to change a thing.  The club is completely directionless and has been for years - the only thing that'll change that is the drying up of commercial contracts rather than poor results.

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tonymg

tonymg

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5 hours ago, Gotters said:

OGS record at the start of Utd was obviously a bit of a blip to anybody looking below the surface, much like Arsenal's long unbeaten run under Emery it was way at odds with the stats and Utd were outscoring their xG and conceding less than the chances they were giving up.

 

 

I don't think this is correct, Utd last season since OGS took over had the 3rd highest actual points (40) and the 3rd highest expected points (37.94) in the league, xG was 40.4 and actual goals 36, xA was 25.78 actual was 25.

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Gotters

Gotters

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17 minutes ago, tonymg said:

 

I don't think this is correct, Utd last season since OGS took over had the 3rd highest actual points (40) and the 3rd highest expected points (37.94) in the league, xG was 40.4 and actual goals 36, xA was 25.78 actual was 25.


i’m referring to the initial 10-12 match run that got him the job, i believe it fell off a cliff a bit after than and his record now for total games compared the equivalent number at the end of Jose’s rule are very similar (albeit with less sourness and drama)

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tonymg

tonymg

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41 minutes ago, Gotters said:


i’m referring to the initial 10-12 match run that got him the job, i believe it fell off a cliff a bit after than and his record now for total games compared the equivalent number at the end of Jose’s rule are very similar (albeit with less sourness and drama)

Even though he did overachieve (in comparison to xG), he still had the 3rd highest expected point total for that 12 games which would have, I'd imagine still got him the job and if extrapolated over a season would have been enough for a Champions league spot.  While I don't think he's the right man for the job, as shit as Utd have been so far this season (and we have been shit), we have also been really unlucky, which expected points would seem to support.  Interestingly (possibly only to me) Mourinho's last 28 games as manager got 51 points compared to OGS's 49, but Mourinho's expected points were 39.44 compared to OGS's 52.34.  Also OGS somehow still has the 3rd highest points total since he took over in the league.

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Gotters

Gotters

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OGS record overall is still padded now by that initial run when Utd could do no wrong.

 

Interesting site here where you can look at form over a few options - ignoring the promoted teams (who I assume form is for the run in end of Championship) Utd are 4th for last 25 games (which covers the end of his good start), over 20 they slip to 8th (again ignoring the promo'd teams) and over 15 things start to look very grim.

 

http://footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=form_basic

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tonymg

tonymg

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1 hour ago, Gotters said:

OGS record overall is still padded now by that initial run when Utd could do no wrong.

 

Interesting site here where you can look at form over a few options - ignoring the promoted teams (who I assume form is for the tale end of Championship) Utd are 4th for last 25 games (which covers the end of his good start), over 20 they slip to 8th (again ignoring the promo'd teams) and over 15 things start to look very grim.

 

http://footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=form_basic

Obviously he's on a terrible run and will almost definitely, ultimately not be the man for the job but you seem to use xg (and by extension expected points) when it fits the narrative (the padded run) but ignore them for the bad run until the end of the season (games 9, points 8, expected points 14.14) and the current form (games 7, points 9, expected points 14.4),  and the other problem I find is that its easy to look at the stats in isolation which misses that the bad run coincided with a a lot of injuries which has continued into this season, but ultimately I'm not sure a new manager is going to do much better, the midfield when Pogba isn't playing or the 6-7/10 times he's having a bad day is probably the worst in the top half of the league and we have an inconsistent forward line.  I'm resigned to the fact that Utd are done as a top club while the Glazers are in charge, My Dad's been a Utd Supporter since the 50's so he's always reminded me what it was like when we were truly shit and that success isn't guaranteed.   

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