Prey (was: Predator 5)

[lolly]

In support of your retaining subs argument - I only re-subbed to Disney for  the Larry Kenobi series but saw that Prey was coming up  a month, maybe less after the conclusion of that series so didn't see the point of unsubscribing and resubscribing.An now I'm watching Legion and waiting for Andor....

 

Also, I missed the end of the post credits- feel rather foolish

[Stig]

2 hours ago, teddymeow said:

Disney+ has all of the Predator films except the Shane Black one up for streaming.

 

Watching the OG now. It's so 80s!!! I love it!!!

 

Oooh, I may revisit Predator 2

[Turino 73]

4 hours ago, Pelekophoros said:

 

A cinema release isn't free, or even free money.

 

The Predator, the last movie in the franchise, cost $88 million to make. Marketing costs I think typically double that.

 

Domestically it took $55m in the US, 20th Century Fox didn't get all of that, but I believe it's where US filmmakers get the biggest chunk of money back from ticket sales.

 

Internationally, it took another $110m. The studio gets a fraction of that back.

 

So, in no uncertain terms, it lost money for the studio.

 

Disney, faced with the option of either releasing the latest installment of an underperforming franchise to theatres after a global pandemic and uncertain audience turnout - at additional cost to do so - or punting it as a high profile release on to their streaming platform chose the latter.

 

The reasoning is simple; regular exclusive content is critical to keep subscribers high. The reduction in churn and retention of existing customers is the strategy - you want to keep that $1 billion dollars per month coming in.

Absolutely no way The Predator lost money for the studio. The studio have their international sell through deals for the next 5 years all sown up before greenlighting anything over $60m. They've recouped before the film is released. A box office failure only means no profit. 

[instasis]

7 hours ago, Eighthours said:

I mean, that’s literally not the reason by the accounts of all involved, but OK.

 

Got some links please? Am interested.

 

EDIT: I've taken your snark as motivational juice.

 

Interesting; grandfathered streaming rights between 20th Century Fox and HBO would have meant Disney couldn't have it on their own platforms if they did a theatrical run, at least in the US. Every article is US focused, so I'm not sure it applies to all territories given the other examples given.

 

So...Disney want regular exclusive content to keep subscribers high. The reduction in churn and retention of existing customers is the strategy - you want to keep that $1 billion dollars per month coming in. Correct?

 

5 hours ago, Turino 73 said:

Absolutely no way The Predator lost money for the studio. The studio have their international sell through deals for the next 5 years all sown up before greenlighting anything over $60m. They've recouped before the film is released. A box office failure only means no profit. 

 

So The Predator was a box office success, and there was free money on the table for Disney with a cinema release of Prey?

 

Edit: this also implies it's impossible for large movies to lose money which sounds...implausible.

 

Edit edit: how do those sell through deals work in a world where the film doesn't hit theatres and goes straight to streaming.

[instasis]

6 hours ago, lolly said:

In support of your retaining subs argument - I only re-subbed to Disney for  the Larry Kenobi series but saw that Prey was coming up  a month, maybe less after the conclusion of that series so didn't see the point of unsubscribing and resubscribing.An now I'm watching Legion and waiting for Andor....

 

Also, I missed the end of the post credits- feel rather foolish

 

I think Eighthours is arguing that the performance of The Predator was not a factor in their decision to not do a theatrical run, which is fair.

 

I'm pretty sure nobody would argue against "putting premium exclusive content on to a streaming platform helps subs" at this point in streaming game. 

 

I'll die on the hill that $1billion per month means Disney can do whatever they want without theatrical releases.

[SeanR]

16 minutes ago, Pelekophoros said:

 

I think Eighthours is arguing that the performance of The Predator was not a factor in their decision to not do a theatrical run, which is fair.

this reads like a critique of the creature’s acting, rather than box-office…

[lolly]

19 minutes ago, Pelekophoros said:

 

I think Eighthours is arguing that the performance of The Predator was not a factor in their decision to not do a theatrical run, which is fair.

 

I'm pretty sure nobody would argue against "putting premium exclusive content on to a streaming platform helps subs" at this point in streaming game. 

 

I'll die on the hill that $1billion per month means Disney can do whatever they want without theatrical releases.

Ah, I've misunderstood, apologies.

[instasis]

2 minutes ago, SeanR said:

this reads like a critique of the creature’s acting, rather than box-office…

 

Predadog should have been given an oscar.

[SeanR]

 

[SeanR]

9 hours ago, schmojo said:

I had a good time with this. Logical enough, and a good blend of action, violence and thoughtful ideas. 

 

I'd happily see them go all Assassin's Creed and show predators taking on different groups throughout world history.

tunguska was a predator event.

 

so was the destruction of Minoan Crete…

[Eighthours]

2 hours ago, Pelekophoros said:

 

Got some links please? Am interested.

 

EDIT: I've taken your snark as motivational juice.

Ha, apologies for the snark - I thought the studio deal shenanigans were common knowledge but I did read loads of interviews so probably not. Dan Trachtenberg is playing the media game well, but you can tell that underneath he’s pretty disappointed that the HBO Max situation meant the film didn’t get a cinema release.
 

It’s interesting, though, because how it’s ended up obviously makes less money for Disney, but probably makes a bigger splash for the film and Trachtenberg, as it seems like an ‘event’ now rather than just another Predator movie released at the cinema. I expect it would have done OK at the box office and made back its money, but I doubt it would have been a massive hit. I think the franchise was a bit too tarnished at this point for it to be that - not anymore, though, as this film has revitalised the Predator series and the next one could make some serious coin now if done well.

[Pob]

Yeah, Prey doesn't seem like a particularly commercial film in this day and age. I reckon it would've sunk at the cinema.

 

In fact it feels like the kind of film we've all been moaning for years doesn't get made any more. A mid-budget action thriller that sits between oscar-baiting prestige drama and overblown uber-event picture. In a way it feels like not only a story prequel to the original Predator, but something that could actually have been made before it. CGI aside, it feels more stripped down and 70s, and makes the Arnie movie seem a bit cheesy and OTT in comparison. It's almost like what First Blood is to Rambo. If streaming services and recycling existing franchises means we get pictures of this quality, I'm all for it.

[schmojo]

1 hour ago, SeanR said:

tunguska was a predator event.

 

so was the destruction of Minoan Crete…

 

The Minotaur actually being a stranded Pred that they tricked into a maze? Yeah, I'll have that.

[Turino 73]

5 hours ago, Pelekophoros said:

 

So The Predator was a box office success, and there was free money on the table for Disney with a cinema release of Prey?

 

Edit: this also implies it's impossible for large movies to lose money which sounds...implausible.

 

Edit edit: how do those sell through deals work in a world where the film doesn't hit theatres and goes straight to streaming.

 

I went and looked at the numbers and you're right, The Predator probably did lose money, but not a lot. $88m budget. Lets say $30m P&A plus distro, call it $120m total. It took $159 at the box office and then did another $20m on DVD. Lifetime TV deal probably brought in another $5m. $184m total. Of which lets say 60% aggregate went back to Fox. So they recouped about $110m. Guess work but yeah I concede they probably did lose money.

The large movies can defo lose money. Mainly because of the huge P&A spend. A movie like John Carter will have had its budget again spent on it. So it's $350m in the hole before it comes out the gate meaning it needs to do $700m just to break even.

The sell through deals only really exist in the Independent sector these days. The majors all have their own platforms just like they used to with cinema chains.

[SeanR]

$159!?!

[Turino 73]

🤣

[jonathanhoey]

On 05/08/2022 at 21:59, hmm said:

 

It's deliberate. With the subtitles turned on, the Comanche and French dialog is just in those languages, not translated.

 

I speak French and my girlfriend doesn't. She found the lack of translation quite off-putting and ended up getting me to interpret on the fly. 

 

Fortunately none of it's very complicated. A lot of it is on a pretty basic "shut the fuck up you savage bitch", "we've got it", "run away!" level. 

 

There's one scene where

Spoiler

a couple of the trappers are preparing to flee from their camp and have a brief debate about what to do about Naru's dog, which is still tied up. One of them says something like "I like the dog. It would be kinder to kill it now."  Edit: rewatched this bit and he doesn't say anything of the sort! He says "it will taste better than a beaver". What a dick!

 

On 05/08/2022 at 22:05, teddymeow said:

Does the dog die?

 

On 08/08/2022 at 11:27, marcus said:

I could feel my body tense every time the dog looked like it might be harmed.   Could not care less about the humans getting decapitated and so on though.  

 

Spoiler

Naru's dog makes it to the end. A wolf isn't so lucky. 

 

It's a bit tough to watch because they've clearly just used a dog for the wolf (when it's not CGI, obviously) and it looks exactly like my own dog. 

 

 

 

On 06/08/2022 at 16:42, odb said:

Still think they're cheating bastards.

 

They're exactly like real sport hunters, aren't they? Think they're big tough guys but actually they're just dickheads relying on hiding (in this universe, active camo stands in for ghillie suits) and a massive firepower advantage. 

 

And we all love to see them get their comeuppance. Like how it's incredibly satisfying when a toreador gets gored by the bull. 

[Pob]

4 minutes ago, jonathanhoey said:

 

They're exactly like real sport hunters, aren't they? Think they're big tough guys but actually they're just dickheads relying on hiding (in this universe, active camo stands in for ghillie suits) and a massive firepower advantage. 

 

And we all love to see them get their comeuppance. Like how it's incredibly satisfying when a toreador gets gored by the bull. 

 

Yeah, exactly. Have you seen the Willian Friedkin film The Hunted from 2003? Benicio Del Toro vs Tommy Lee Jones? In that he kills a couple of deer hunters because they're using fancy scoped rifles rather than hunting up close and personal. This film reminded me of that.

[Hanzo the Razor]

On 09/08/2022 at 00:11, Stigweard said:

 

Oooh, I may revisit Predator 2

 

 

[jonathanhoey]

I realise I quote-replied to a few other people but forgot to say what I thought of the film. Loved it. Four stars, will watch again.

[Bazjam]

Three stars from me. Really wanted to like it more but it all felt very formulaic to me. Certainly the best Predator film since the first one, but that's a very low bar to measure it by.

 

Will give it another try though, maybe I just wasn't in the mood.

[jonathanhoey]

Minor thing but have they done away with the whole thing where the Predators would come to Earth during unusual heatwaves?

 

I realise I now can't remember if that's actually from the two (previous) proper Predator movies, or if I've picked it up over the years from possibly non-canon sources. 

[Padster]

Seems like a poor strategy when you see in infra-red, tbh. 

[jonathanhoey]

2 hours ago, DualSense said:

Yes that was mentioned in both Predator and Predator 2.

Thanks, I thought so but in my teens I read a lot of the EU stuff and sometimes I forget what’s from where.

 

I assume they just couldn’t get the shooting schedule together in hot weather and decided it didn’t matter enough. 

[Alex W.]

Or this is set before Predators got so soft they wouldn’t even go on Safari unless the weather was good.

[Benny]

On 06/08/2022 at 08:42, Bucky said:

Yeah that was good but...

 

  Hide contents

...I think the final scenes in the credits render it all a bit for nothing.  The three Predator ships arriving, obviously killing the entire tribe and taking back the pistol (which they will eventually give to Harrigan in Predator 2) mean that ultimately Naru's victory was fruitless.

 

 

Spoiler

I don't agree with that. I think *cough* lore wise the Predators might have been coming down to honour the hunter that bested one of them. The way the Predator acted and roared at the end was very much "hey Bros, I've found a worthy adversary at last"

 

 

Anyway I enjoyed that. Only bit I genuinely disliked was the

 

Spoiler

If it bleeds we can kill it line. It was so blatant, out of place, shoehorned in, and only exists in the script so we can all clap and go "he said the line! A line from Predator! I know that thing! I member!". It's fucking stupid and it cheapens everything to treat your audience like chattering gibbons like that.

 

But other than that, great.

 

Spoiler

Bear was totally jobbing though. Predator got lucky.

 

[JohnC]

This particular one was probably lucky rakes hadn’t been invented yet. 

[Don Rosco]

13 hours ago, jonathanhoey said:

They're exactly like real sport hunters, aren't they? Think they're big tough guys but actually they're just dickheads relying on hiding (in this universe, active camo stands in for ghillie suits) and a massive firepower advantage. 

 

And we all love to see them get their comeuppance. Like how it's incredibly satisfying when a toreador gets gored by the bull.

That’s really the vibe, isn’t it? Arseholes. Thanks for French translation btw, I didn’t mind it being unsubtitled in the film but that is one funny line. 
 

Really enjoyed the film myself - thought it was going to be a bit weirder than it turned out for some reason, I think I misinterpreted the hype. It’s quite conventional, really. So well crafted though, it’s quite rich throughout, there’s so much to see. Lots of foreshadowing, a few sneaky predator references, how it showed how the Native Americans lived their lives (particularly loved when she picked up the wood from the tribal stock. Community-owned energy). Should be good to rewatch. 

[Don Rosco]

1 hour ago, Benny said:

Anyway I enjoyed that. Only bit I genuinely disliked was the

 

Spoiler

I disagree - that kind of thing lives or dies on its delivery and I thought it really worked here. Same as Karl Urban with “Ma-Ma is not the law. I am the law.” Fuckin DEADLY

 

[Benny]

I think it was delivered okay, it just felt entirely unnecessary

 

Spoiler

It completely took me out of the movie, because it reminded me I was watching not only a "Predator" movie, but something that's part of a franchise that has "iconic" lines in it.

 

It's so much more immersive when characters exist on their own terms, which this film otherwise does extremely well, without having to rely on shoving that dialogue in for them to say.