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Christmas 2021 Videogame Sweepstakes - Predict Prosperity/Forecast Flops


Harsin
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Every year a lot of the games industry tries to shove out all its massive budget big hitters in the few months at the end of the year - every year some crash and burn because people have limited funds and limited time.

 

This year is actually probbaly better than usual because Covid mucked up the release cycle so much, but there's still a hell of a lot coming down the pipe over the next two months.

 

This thread is for you predict which ones will make major bank and which will become the next Anthem or Avengers: A-Day. Then we can all look back at how hilariously wrong we were and nod sagely at our wisdom.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, our contenders. I'll inevitably forget some so this is just a guide not a definitiv list and some have already come out. Spoilered the list to save space.

 

Spoiler

OCTOBER

 

FIFA 22 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – October 1

Phoenix Point (PlayStation 4, Xbox One) – October 1

Alan Wake Remastered (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – October 5

Hell Let Loose (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S) – October 5

Jett: The Far Shore (PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4) – October 5

Lego Marvel Super Heroes (Switch) – October 5  – Read review

Nickelodeon All-Star Brawl (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 5

Super Monkey Ball Banana Mania (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 5

The Falconeer (Stadia) – October 5

Art of Rally (PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4) – October 6

Enlisted (Xbox One) – October 7

Far Cry 6 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Stadia, PC, Mac) – October 7

Gang Beasts (Switch) – October 7

Song in the Smoke (PlayStation VR, Rift, Quest) – October 7

Doki Doki Literature Club Plus (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 8

Metroid Dread (Switch) – October 8

Tetris Effect: Connected (Switch) – October 8

Back 4 Blood (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – October 12

Disco Elysium: The Final Cut (Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, Switch) – October 12

Monster Crown (PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 12

Ori: The Collection (Switch) – October 12

Slender: The Arrival (iOS, Android) – October 13

Dungeon Encounters (PlayStation 4, Switch, PC) – October 14

The Jackbox Party Pack 8 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 14

The Riftbreaker (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC) – October 14

Crysis Remastered Trilogy (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 15

Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 15

NHL 22 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One) – October 15

The Good Life (PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 15

Nuclear Blaze (PC) – October 18

Inscryption (PC) – October 19

Into the Pit (Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, PC) – October 19

Corpse Party (2021) (Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 20

Grotto (PC) – October 20

Townscaper (iOS, Android) – October 20

A Little to the Left (PC) – October 21

Echo Generation (Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, PC) – October 21

The Dark Pictures Anthology: House of Ashes (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – October 21

Iron Harvest (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S) – October 26

Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 26

NASCAR 21: Ignition (PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – October 26

Solar Ash (PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, PC) – October 26

Workshop Simulator (PC) – October 26

Super Robot Wars 30 (PC) – October 27

Age of Empires IV (PC) – October 28

Dusk (Switch) – October 28

Fatal Frame: Maiden of Black Water (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – October 28  – Read review

Riders Republic (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Stadia, PC) – October 28

Röki (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S) – October 28

Voice Of Cards: The Isle Dragon Roars (PlayStation 4, Switch, PC) – October 28

Mario Party Superstars (Switch) – October 29

 

November

 

Unpacking (Switch, PC) – November 2

World War Z (Switch) – November 2

Just Dance 2022 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, Switch, Stadia) – November 4

Call of Duty: Vanguard (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – November 5

Airborne Kingdom (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch) – November 9

Disney Classic Games Collection (PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC) – November 9

Football Manager 2022 (Xbox One, PC) – November 9

Forza Horizon 5 (Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, PC) – November 9

Jurassic World Evolution 2 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – November 9

Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (Switch) – November 11

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S) – November 11

Shin Megami Tensei V (Switch) – November 12

Sherlock Holmes: Chapter One (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, PC) – November 16

The Wild At Heart (PlayStation 4) – November 16

Battlefield 2042 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – November 19

Pokémon Brilliant Diamond (Switch) – November 19

Pokémon Shining Pearl (Switch) – November 19

Farming Simulator 22 (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, Stadia) – November 22

Final Fantasy XIV: Endwalker (PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, PC, Mac) – November 23

Beyond a Steel Sky (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch) – November 30

Evil Genius 2: World Domination (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox 360) – November 30

 

DECEMBER

 

Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp (Switch) – December 3

Chorus (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, Stadia, PC) – December 3

Danganronpa Decadence (Switch) – December 3

Danganronpa S: Ultimate Summer Camp (Switch) – December 3

SpellForce III Reforced (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC) – December 7

Thymesia (PC) – December 7

Halo Infinite (Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, PC) – December 8

Monster Rancher 1 & 2 DX (Switch, PC, iOS) – December 9


 

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  • Harsin changed the title to Christmas 2021 Videogame Sweepstakes - Predict Prosperity/Forecast Flops

Halo Infinite and Forza sales will be absolutely flaccid - Because everyone's playing them via Game Pass.

 

Endwalker will be massive, everyone who's currently subbed and ramming the servers are gagging to get into the expansion. And rightly so, because it's the only MMO I've played where the combat and general dungeon experience doesn't feel like watching two Excel spreadsheets fucking (the fetch quest mechanics that plague the genre is still present and dogshit, mind).

 

I'm not-so-secretly hoping that SMT V is a watershed moment of the series and it becomes just as popular as Persona. Because, well, SMT IV was the best RPG I've played in quite some time.

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Shin Megami Tensei V and Forza Horizon 4 are all I need

 

The new Sherlock Holmes could be good, but it feels like they keep misunderstanding what made Crimes & Punishments great.

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3 minutes ago, Siri said:

Halo Infinite and Forza sales will be absolutely flaccid - Because everyone's playing them via Game Pass.

It will be interesting to see how many subscribers MS attracts over the winter months.

 

I expect at some point most gaming will end up service based so we don't get this glut of games every winter.

 

I still miss boxed games with instruction manuals sometimes :D

 

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The annual xmas tentpoles like CoD and FIFA will be fine, and MS first party sales are pretty irrelevent now with Gamepass.

 

I’d be worried for something like Riders Republic which is big budget and new IP, would expect to see the disc editions of that down at £25-30 by early Dec whilst they still after £90 for the digital edition. They’ll pump it out cheaper hoping to sell the content season passes.

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343 were doing a lot of things right in the Halo Infinite multiplayer test flight, if that carries over to campaign then, combined with gamepass, I can see it being a surprising hit (at least compared to the beating it has taken pre-release)

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45 minutes ago, Qazimod said:

CoD Vanguard and BF 2042 will be successful, I reckon. :sherlock: 

 

I don't own a Switch but it would be nice to see SMTV doing well.

 

I think, given the reaction to the beta, BF 2042 could underperform.

Halo/FH5 - it'll be interesting to see the steam sales.

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Obviously FIFA, CoD and BF2042 will be the big ones, as there's no accounting for taste.

 

I hope Alan Wake finds a new audience on Playstation. It might be a bit old for that though, but it's still an amazing game.

 

I'm confident Halo and Forza will both be excellent, but seeing as they're on gamepass, they're pretty much irrelevant to this thread.

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Halo is going to be a really hard one to get a grasp on how it’s performed due to GamePass. Doubt many Xbox owners here will need to buy it. Steam sales won't even tell us much as the MP segment is free to play isn't it? The recent beta seems to have done a world of good for the MPs prospect. I suspect it'll have a healthy multiplayer community but the campaign will be mediocre at best and quickly forgotten - they're not keeping it hidden from view because they're confident in it.

 

CoD will do well because it's CoD and they could release a disc case that just contained used needles and poisonous spiders and it would still get to number one. Not sure what it would take to shake whatever deal with Mephistopheles Bobby kotick made.

 

Battlefield is a bit of a wild card. The reception to the beta has been negative across the entire internet. But modern warfare style shootman games still sell like wildfire. Thing is you can tell they're desperately trying to attract CoD Warzone players, at the expense of possibly driving away their existing customer base like a games dev version of the modern Labour Party, and I just don’t see that happening. If I had to make a call I'd say it will release as a right bug-ridden dog's dinner technically and underperform significantly, but not to the extent of Battlefront 2 and Battlefield V. The question is what happens to Dice if they put out a third flop in a row for the holidays. EA aren't going to shutter them as they're too big a cog in their machine, but I imagine they'll undergo a major shake

 

Looking at the list I posted I was shocked to realise Guardians of the Galaxy is out in 14 days. That game seems to have tumbleweed level hype so can't see it doing too hot.

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I think BF2042 is in trouble following the beta and will launch to middling reviews, game-breaking bugs and a quick drop in server numbers. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see another delay.

 

All Nintendo published/first party releases are basically guaranteed top 5. I can see pokemon diamond/Pearl hitting number because of the dual nature of the release(s)

 

House of Ashes - I’m not sure, it’s Halloween season and people will want spooky but will need to be supported by good reviews.

 

Not sure how to judge Halo and FH5 as they’re gamepass and on that they’ll do great guns.

 

Some of these remasters it’s harder to gauge relative success as they don’t need to do as big numbers to make money compared to a game made from scratch.

 

I think Riders Republic will do well after being well received in beta.

 

CoD Vanguard will do OK if the campaign isn’t total turnips.

 

Guardians of the galaxy will do top 5 but won’t set the world on fire.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Corranga said:


With Advance Wars in the list, I really hope so, but I’m not so confident..


I think Nintendo will have realised (even more) that marketing the shit out of a game (Metroid dread) works pretty well.

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I think all of the big tentpoles will be fine, with the possible exception of Vanguard, which I've seen nothing positive about. Halo I reckon will be a big success - it's been enough time that people seem primed for it (I certainly am), and as long as it's a solid Halo game ultimately that will be enough.   

 

The real question mark for me, is Age of Empires 4. That's going to have to be something special to get its hooks into people, I think. The pre-release hype has been all but non-existent, compared to something like Humankind, and that seems to have died a fairly quick death. The success of strategy fames is much harder to gauge (even taking Game Pass out of the equation) as the aim is presumably to get people playing them for thousands of hours. I'm not sure this is currently set up to have that kind of longevity based on what I've seen, but I'd be happy to be wrong. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Harsin said:

 

Looking at the list I posted I was shocked to realise Guardians of the Galaxy is out in 14 days. That game seems to have tumbleweed level hype so can't see it doing too hot.


When the first round of previews were stating that they were actually surprised that the game seems fun, it’s quite telling that everyone had written it off as a turd. It’s the “Avongers” aesthetic that’s such an own goal, as everyone wants to be playing an MCU game, and not this weird interpretation. 

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Things I think will flop:

 

Back 4 Blood: This feels like a sure fire flop to me. The marketing material is pure cringe, and I feel like it needs a decent player base to work. It looks cheap, like an indie game not a triple A shooter. And I don’t think it’s going to grab any of the audience that other shooters have.

 

GOTG: This looks exactly like Avengers, except instead of looking like a single player game that has been reworked into a multiplayer one this one looks like a multiplayer game that’s been reworked into a single player one. I think the story will probably be ok, like Avengers was, but I think they’ve completely misjudged what people want from Marvel games. 

 

Big hits:

 

COD: They could shit in the box and this would be the best selling game of the year. I’ve heard nobody talking about it, but I don’t think the audience is people who read about or talk about games.

 

Halo: People love the beta, and Gamepass plus free multiplayer means this will have a huge audience. Not sure how it will review or if people will like it but I’m expecting a lot of attention. 

 

Pokemon: its fucking pokemon. It’s going to shit on everything. 

 

Could go either way:

 

BF2042: I don’t know about this one. It’s got some really bad feedback and I don’t know if it’s going to work in the current landscape where BR and esports focused games are the big tickets. On the other hand it’s a big brand and I’m guessing the last two shitty BF games sold well enough to make sure this one got made. 

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That's a seriously uninspiring list. Bloody Skyrim is going to outsell most of that lot, again.

 

I tried playing Back 4 Blood yesterday - it's been out a matter of days, it's on Game Pass, it has crossplay across all platforms, and it still took nearly ten minutes to match me as part of a team of four. It's dead in the water.

 

Can't see this year's Avengers Cosplay game being a big hit. Just stump up the cash and get the MCU likenesses, it might be a decent game but no-one wants to see That Guy and That Other Guy pretending to be the characters we know and love.

 

Skyrim's a remake. Advance Wars is a remake. Danganronpa is a remake. Pokemon's a remake. Monkey Ball's a remake. GTA's a remake. Fuck's sake.

 

Basically the year has peaked already with Metroid Dread. It's downhill all the way from here.

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30 minutes ago, Oz said:

Fuck I did not realise Skyrim was even getting another update. What’s remake about it? 

 

I'm going to guess literally nothing other than slightly higher resolution arrowed knees.

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22 hours ago, Broker said:

Things I think will flop:

 

Back 4 Blood: This feels like a sure fire flop to me. The marketing material is pure cringe, and I feel like it needs a decent player base to work. It looks cheap, like an indie game not a triple A shooter. And I don’t think it’s going to grab any of the audience that other shooters have.


I'm enjoying it more than I thought I would based on the betas, but I think it’s fair to say Warner Bros Games didn't decide to stick it on GamePass day one because they thought they had a big hit on their hands. As I was off today and none of my usual gang were abut I tried playing with randoms, the waiting times for online games were brutal and half the time spots were still being taken up by bots, this is during launch week, with PlayStation/Xbox/PC crossplay enabled, where the game has essentially been given away on one platform to boot.

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  • 1 month later...
On 13/10/2021 at 18:34, Harsin said:

The question is what happens to Dice if they put out a third flop in a row for the holidays. EA aren't going to shutter them as they're too big a cog in their machine, but I imagine they'll undergo a major shakeup

 

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